FAPRI: Livestock Prices High This Year, Could Taper in 2015

John DavisLivestock

FAPRI logoLivestock producers are seeing record high prices this year, but those could taper off a bit in 2015. The latest report from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri says those producers are also getting a break as the price of the grains they feed their livestock has dropped.

· Reduced cattle numbers, animal disease problems and strong international demand are among the factors causing record cattle, hog and milk prices in 2014. Supply response to these high output prices and lower feed costs contribute to lower meat and dairy prices in 2015.

· Higher retail meat prices contribute to an uptick in consumer food price inflation in 2014, but the projected rate drops below 2 percent again in 2015.

· The potential for record corn and soybean crops has weighed on prices for grains and oilseeds. Corn and soybean prices for the crops harvested this fall could be the lowest since 2009.

In addition, Missouri’s Agricultural Markets and Policy team says that livestock producers will benefit from the lower input costs and remaining strong consumer demand.

If current yield expectations for this year’s crop are realized, pork and milk producers could see production costs fall by 15 percent in 2014 relative to 2012, with cow‐calf expenses falling by 8‐10 percent.

Though concerns remain regarding the strength of consumer demand for meat and milk products, there have been some positive signs. The choice boxed beef cutout eclipsed $2 per pound for the first time in May 2013, and the pork cutout value has been higher than 98 cents per pound every day for the past two months after only exceeding this level six percent of the time from January 2010 to mid‐June 2013. Wholesale chicken prices were above $1 per pound for the first six months of 2013 after averaging 83 cents from 2010‐2012, and international dairy product prices have increased by double‐digit percentages since the beginning of the year. Though some of these price increases are attributable to supply growth that has been constrained by high input costs, demand has strengthened as the U.S. and world economies continue to improve from the 2009 recession.