The Blog

The cheese price roller coaster is back in business as the blocks tumbled 10 cents the second week of April, ending Friday at $1.3975 per pound, still 22 3/4-cents above that week a year ago. The barrels rolled 7 1/2-cents lower, to $1.3650, but that’s 25 1/2-cents above a year ago. Only two cars of block traded hands on the week and 13 of barrel. The lagging NASS-surveyed U.S. average block price hit $1.3166, up 3.1 cents. Barrel averaged $1.3598, up 6 cents.

University of Wisconsin Emeritus Professor, Dr. Robert Cropp, commenting in Tuesday’s DairyLine, recalled that it was just a few weeks ago the price was at $1.26 or $1.27 and “that seemed way too low,” then it approached $1.50, and “now we’re going back down again.”

February cheese stocks were relatively high, he explained, and the other disturbing thing is that USDA revised its 2010 milk production forecast again. It had once predicted a 0.7 percent decrease from 2009 but is now expecting a 0.3 percent increase, plus growing cow numbers is another concern, he said.

“The concern is that milk production is not going to decline as we thought,” Cropp said. That, with plentiful stocks and a weaker than expected export market on nonfat dry milk, portends cheaper powder and more milk going to cheese.

The market has to strengthen in the second half, he warned, because these cheese prices portend a Class III milk price below $14 and that will continue to stress farmers, with no recovery for lost equity. That could mean second half decreases in the milk supply and a recovery in prices, he said. Cropp looks for cheese to “bounce around $1.40-$1.45 until we move further into summer.

Butter remains strong and closed Friday at $1.56 per pound, up 6 cents on the week, and 35 3/4-cents above a year ago. Only four cars were actually sold on the week. NASS butter averaged $1.4749, up 2.3 cents.

Cropp said cream supplies are tighter as temperatures rise and more cream goes into ice cream. Butter sales are “half way reasonable,” he said, and earlier, there was some inventory building by buyers who recognize that the cream supply and butter production will get tighter as we move into summer. Butter stocks are also slightly below a year ago, he said.

Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at $1.2925, up 2 3/4-cents on the week. Extra Grade closed at $1.21, up 2 cents. NASS powder averaged $1.1111, up 4.5 cents. Dry whey averaged 36.34 cents, up 1.9 cents.

Provided courtesy of Dairyline.